Extreme heat will be one of the biggest challenges for players and fans during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to an analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA). Around 25 percent of the 104 matches could be played under temperatures that exceed the recommended thermal safety limits.

The WWA study points out that the probability of facing these conditions is almost double what was recorded in the 1994 tournament held in the United States. Projections were developed using a statistical model designed to calculate the probability of each match being played in extremely hot conditions, using the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) as an indicator.

The analysis individually examined all the cities in the United States, Mexico and Canada that will host 2026 World Cup matches. To do so, it considered specific local factors, including altitude, ambient humidity, regional climate, and the urban characteristics of each venue. The researchers analyzed historical daily WBGT records for the period between June 11 and July 19, the scheduled dates of the tournament.

The organization set a WBGT index of 26°C as the threshold above which additional hydration and cooling measures would need to be implemented to protect players. A temperature of 28°C is considered high risk, with FIFPro advising on delaying or even suspending matches at this level. Based on these parameters, the study concludes that one in four matches could be played under the first risk scenario, while at least five matches will be played in conditions equal to or above 82°F.

The report warns that Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Dallas and Houston present a particularly worrisome scenario. The findings indicate that these cities have a return period of just one year for events reaching 82.4°F WBGT. The same frequency trend is observed in the US cities of Atlanta, Boston and New York, as well as in the Mexican city of Monterrey.