In an earnings call yesterday, Tesla CEO Elon Musk attempted to portray the company’s robotaxi program in a positive light. New cities are being added, more miles driven, and more people experiencing unsupervised vehicles. However, reality paints a different picture.

Mileage is flat, vehicle numbers are shrinking, and safety remains an open question. Musk’s typical optimism was notably absent as he tried to manage expectations about the program's future growth. Tesla claims that its unsupervised robotaxis have driven 380,000 miles across six cities in just two states, but this figure is a fraction of Waymo’s total mileage.

Competitors like Waymo use lidar sensors and radar as redundant sensors alongside cameras, while Tesla opts for a camera-only approach. This has led to some skepticism from investors, with BNP Paribas Equity Research senior analyst James Picariello calling it an “alarming decline.” Moreover, state regulations may further restrict Tesla’s operations, especially in New Jersey, where a bill could ban robotaxis without multiple sensors.

Safety is also under scrutiny. Although Musk insisted on avoiding harm to pets, Tesla’s safety record is mixed. The company often redacts crucial details of crashes, and its Full Self-Driving feature is currently under investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Despite these challenges, investors are asked to remain optimistic as Tesla continues to push its message of growing robotaxi services.