Prediction markets on Polymarket’s offshore platform saw over $600 million in trading volume after elections concluded. This activity, particularly in Ethiopia, was bizarre: $285 million was bet on losing candidates, and much of this was back-and-forth trades between the same pairs of accounts. Experts suspect ‘activity farming’ or wash trading, where traders artificially inflate their volumes to benefit from potential token allocations.

This raises questions about the reliability of prediction markets as genuine indicators of public opinion. If people are just gaming the system, what’s the point of these markets?

Polymarket’s own response was swift: they flagged and blocked suspicious accounts. But the timing and scale of the trading, especially in the Romanian election market, suggest a deeper issue with market manipulation. Experts like Rajiv Sethi and MSR Decode’s Chris Park are probing, but the identities of the traders remain unknown.

The crypto industry has seen similar patterns, prompting Andre Guettler to note that these are textbook cases of ‘activity farming’ to secure potential airdrops. But what does it say about us when we’re willing to trade on events long after they’ve occurred?