It's become almost like a histamine response: after shocking national events, discussions about secession surge online. This kind of talk flared again in January when two citizens were shot by immigration agents in Minneapolis, and governor Tim Walz mobilized the Minnesota National Guard to support local law enforcement.

Popular discourse sketched out the basic outlines of American fragmentation: spiraling civil war is the nightmare, tidy secession the dream. But is it really possible to have one without the other? And what would secession actually look like in the United States?

Since the 1990s, some Silicon Valley futurists have coolly forecast the crack-up of an obsolete American nation-state—without specifying any grisly details. A growing number of people across the spectrum now believe that a secessionist breakup is the best solution for America's irreconcilable differences.

In reality, red and blue America are intricately intermixed. Political divisions cut through states, neighborhoods, even households. An ideologically driven secession scenario would almost inevitably force a dangerous unmixing and re-sorting of Americans, leading to security dilemmas, stranded populations and refugees on the run.

Moreover, there’s no legal framework for secession—no procedure or precedent for dividing the estate. National debt, social security, military installations and naval vessels: each side would attempt to grab what they can. The enormous coercive power of a Trump-like figure would make it extremely difficult for other countries to recognize a breakaway American state.