Solar will outshine all fossil fuels by 2035 to become the largest source of power, according to BloombergNEF. This shift is driven by economics; solar panels have never been cheaper. However, AI-driven data centers could keep coal and gas alive until at least 2050.

While the transition is economically efficient, it may not fully prioritize energy independence. Countries like Saudi Arabia will still rely on foreign energy under a cost-driven decarbonization scenario. Meanwhile, tech giants invest in long-duration storage, geothermal and nuclear to ensure their own reliability but solar’s dominance is undeniable with costs expected to fall by 30%.

China’s industrial policy has been key; its subsidies have kept manufacturing costs low, pushing down prices faster than ever before. In Spain and Italy, standalone solar farms are becoming unprofitable due to surplus power driving down daytime electricity prices. To capitalize on higher evening rates, developers now build hybrid renewable plants combining solar with batteries.

The battery market is poised for a similar boom; by 2035, grid-scale batteries could nearly triple from current levels as companies like Redwood Materials and Ford enter the fray. The Iran War, though not affecting this report, may yet disrupt global energy dynamics, adding another layer of uncertainty to our energy future.