Late last year, Vancouver-based aviation analyst Mark Miller bought plane tickets for his family of four to Rome this summer. The Millers planned a trip through Italy’s ancient ruins and the dramatic sea cliffs of Sardinia. Five months later, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, potentially depleting global jet fuel supplies by late June—right when the Millers’ holiday was due.

The unprecedented closure sent global stockpiles plummeting, with potential shortages in Europe and the US. With rising prices and carriers canceling flights, Miller and other analysts turned to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which can cut emissions by up to 80% but costs two to five times as much.

United Airlines’ Lauren Riley says the summer of 2026 was expected to be a post-Covid boom for commercial aviation. However, with rising prices and increased demand, SAF may bridge this gap. Made from renewable resources like used cooking oil, SAF can blend seamlessly with conventional jet fuel without altering aircraft design.

Despite its potential benefits, the industry’s use of SAF remains below 1% due to bottlenecks in raw material scarcity, complex infrastructure, and expensive production processes. This year’s oil crisis has highlighted the need for an alternative. United formed a consortium with Microsoft, DSV, and Phillips 66 to scale production.

The Miller family ultimately chose to holiday in North America instead, planning a trip to the Okanagan Valley—a lakeside summer haven in British Columbia—five hours from Vancouver by car and one hour by flight. They are feeling good about their decision amid the ever-changing travel landscape.