A new study reveals that US traders are betting billions on the banned Polymarket crypto platform, despite legal restrictions. The research, conducted by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane, estimates between $10.6 and $26.7 billion in US trading activity via offshore prediction markets.

Crane’s methodology involves analyzing trades that appear to come from the United States but occur on platforms outside US jurisdiction, focusing on market behaviors indicative of American preferences. The findings suggest a significant portion of Polymarket's 30% global trade volume is driven by US-based traders who use virtual private networks to bypass the ban.

Polymarket remains popular for betting on diverse events, from NBA Finals winners to bitcoin prices in five-minute intervals. Despite its crypto platform being banned since 2022, Polymarket continues to operate a US-licensed app that saw trading volume of around $1.6 billion in April 2026.

The CFTC may use extraterritorial jurisdiction to catch offenders but faces challenges in monitoring and enforcing the ban on US traders using offshore platforms. The high-profile case of a special forces soldier profiting from classified information traded on Polymarket adds another layer of complexity to regulatory efforts.

With Polymarket’s crypto platform projected to see US-based trading volume reach $133 billion by 2030, the study paints a picture of a future where technology could increasingly blur legal and geographical boundaries in financial markets.