A key tax credit for heat pumps expired at the end of 2025 but sales have not cooled down. Despite the loss of incentives, installations are still on the rise, with heat pump shipments increasing gradually into spring.

The efficiency and environmental benefits of these appliances are undeniable. In the US, they’ve outsold gas furnaces for four years running and their popularity is spreading globally too.

Heat pumps work by moving existing heat from one place to another using a refrigerant cycle. This makes them much more efficient than traditional heating methods that rely on burning fossil fuels. They can also be reversed to cool buildings, making them a versatile solution for year-round comfort.

The data suggests that the strong market for heat pumps is resilient enough not to depend on government incentives. As Lucas Davis, an energy economist at UC Berkeley, points out, the case for installing heat pumps was compelling even without additional financial support.