The prediction platform Kalshi has entered the art market with a new betting section, offering enthusiasts a chance to speculate on auction outcomes. While this could open up a previously inaccessible asset class to broader audiences, critics fear it might only serve as a high-stakes game for insiders.

For devoted collectors, these bets represent an opportunity to use their expertise in making money. However, the insular nature of the art world and potential for insider trading raises concerns about fairness and ethics. Critics argue that this could lead to a casino-like environment rather than a democratic investment platform.

The volume of trading on Kalshi’s art predictions so far is much smaller compared to other markets, with bets on high-profile auctions generating relatively modest sums. The launch could potentially attract new collectors but might just be another form of entertainment for those already in the know.

Art market insider Maura Brewer argues that these platforms mythologise the auction process, presenting it as a free-for-all when it is often controlled by larger systems. Despite this, Kalshi’s regulated status could make it more appealing to US-based users compared to its offshore competitor Polymarket.