Despite earlier warnings of AI-driven job losses for new graduates, current data from the US Census suggests that recent college leavers are faring as well as their predecessors. A new study from Munich’s CESifo challenges the notion that AI is causing widespread employment issues, finding no significant reduction in hiring among recent graduates.

Researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu focused on new graduates as a potential ‘canary in the coal mine’ for labor market changes, arguing that firms might opt to automate simpler roles rather than laying off experienced staff. Concerns over AI’s potential impact on employment have been building, with venture capitalist Marc Andreessen and investment firm BlackRock CEO Larry Fink expressing worries about this year’s graduates entering a potentially more challenging job market.

The CESifo team used detailed microdata from the US Census’ Current Population Survey to track unemployment trends among recent graduates (aged 22 to 25) since 2022. Their findings revealed that unemployment rates among this demographic have been stable, if not slightly lower, compared to previous years, suggesting that the fears of large-scale AI-induced job displacement may be premature.

While signs point towards a potential increase in AI adoption and spending, the current data suggests that for now, AI is more of a collaborator than a competitor for new graduates. As AI technologies continue to evolve, it remains to be seen whether this early calm will hold.