The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been mercifully quiet, but that’s set to change this week with the forecast of Tropical Storm Isaias becoming the season’s first hurricane. Isaias is currently churning in the Gulf of Mexico, with winds of 65 mph, and is expected to intensify as it passes over warm waters, potentially peaking as a Category 2 storm. Folks in Mississippi, Alabama, and parts of the Florida Panhandle can expect heavy rainfall and storm surges.

Despite the forecast, the season has been unusually quiet due to a ‘super’ El Niño event, which has been dubbed ‘supersized’ and has significantly impacted atmospheric conditions. From 1991 to 2020, the Atlantic basin saw an average of 14 named storms annually, but this year has only seen eight tropical storms and one soon-to-be hurricane. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for 2026 so far is 10.8 units, far below the average of nearly 102 for this time of year.

While Isaias marks a significant milestone for the 2026 season, meteorologists are predicting minimal chances of a sudden spurt of activity as El Niño continues to intensify and the peak of the season has passed. The record or not, Isaias is a stark reminder of the unpredictable nature of hurricanes and the ongoing impact of El Niño.