Forecasters are predicting a below-average hurricane season that kicks off on Monday, June 1. The National Weather Service expects eight to 14 named storms, with three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes of category 3 or higher intensity.
The prediction is based on the expected El Niño phenomenon, which can reduce activity in the Atlantic by causing more wind shear that breaks up developing storms. However, warm water temperatures are anticipated to help any storms that do develop intensify rapidly – a trend increasingly linked to climate change. “When your ocean temperatures are warmer you get more intense hurricanes to develop,” explained Marc Alessi from the Union for Concerned Scientists.
Despite the expected calmer conditions, Ken Graham of the National Weather Service warned: 'It just takes one.' He urged people now is the time to start thinking about their hurricane preparedness plans. As El Niño can trigger more hurricanes in other parts of the world, meteorologists advise against complacency.
The typical season sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. The current forecast suggests a reduction from this norm but highlights that every year remains unpredictable due to natural climate phenomena like El Niño.
