Sylvie Andrews and her partner lost not just a house but their entire decade of sacrifices when the Eaton Fire ravaged Altadena in January 2025. Yet, while thousands evacuated, others saw financial opportunity through Polymarket’s prediction platform.

Prediction markets allow bets on everything from elections to weather events. In Southern California, questions like how many acres would burn or whether fires would reach Santa Monica became gambles. People wagered $1.2 million, raising ethical concerns about treating human tragedies as financial opportunities.

The US Forest Service warns of the risk of arson and insider trading. Even the new Wyldfyre platform, aiming to turn collective intelligence into better wildfire forecasting, faces criticism for potentially diminishing the value placed on human life.

Proponents argue that prediction markets crowdsource useful data. However, firefighting agencies dismiss this as not replacing their validated science and predictive tools. As the next fire season looms, one wonders if we can truly separate finance from disaster.