Into the second month of the US-Iran war, the conflict in the Gulf continues to escalate—airstrikes widening, oil markets reacting, and pressure mounting around the Strait of Hormuz. But beyond the immediate security and economic concerns, another question is quietly taking shape: what actually happens if a nuclear site is hit?

In most cases, even if a nuclear facility is hit, a large-scale radiological disaster is unlikely. Modern sites are designed with multiple safety systems that can shut down reactors and contain damage.

The risk isn’t defined by the strike itself, but by what the strike damages inside the facility. The risk becomes significantly higher if those systems fail—or if an operational nuclear power plant is directly affected. Where does the real danger lie? On February 28, when the US and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign against Iran’s leadership and military infrastructure, Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile sites were marked as potential targets.

As the conflict deepened, Iranian officials reported strikes on the Natanz nuclear facility, a primary uranium enrichment complex, located around 140 miles from Tehran. This was followed by strikes on the Ardakan facility as well as the Khondab heavy water reactor, which was left inoperable after the attack. Earlier this week, additional heavy bunker-buster bombs were also launched in Isfahan, in close proximity to the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center.

So far, international watchdogs have reported no radiation leaks from the targeted facilities. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said there is no indication of off-site contamination, even after reported strikes on sites such as Natanz and near Isfahan. But the concern isn’t limited to the impact site. Across the Gulf, the risks are shaped by geography and infrastructure.